:Issued: 2004 Dec 01 1253 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41201
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Dec 2004, 1235UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Dec 2004 until 03 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Since yesterday, active region 79 (NOAA0708) has experienced some
growth. It already produced a C5 flare, and today Dec.1 at 07:00, it produced an
M1.2 flare, with probably an associated CME, based on preliminary SOHO/EIT
imagery. Given the position of the source, this event, if confirmed, might be
geoeffective. More C flares and a possible isolated M flare are expected in the
next 24h.
Since about 08:00UT today, the solar wind speed started to slowly decline from
a maximum of 640km/s, while Bz turned positive. The geomagnetic field has been
active for about 1 hour around 09:00UT Dec.1, but now, it is again unsettled.
Goemagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled over the
next 24h, with occasional active periods. Thereafter, the conditions are
expected to become quiet, until the possible arrival of the CME disturbance late
on Dec. 3 or on Dec.4.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 072
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 111
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 029
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 019
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
1 0700 0720 0741 N07E20 M1.2 79 0708
Halo CME ?
---
Outgoing mail is certified virus free by Grisoft AVG 6.0.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.803 / Virus Database: 546 - Release Date: 11/30/2004
_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
|