KN4LF Solar Space Weather Geomagnetic and Propagation Outlook
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Posted 2000 UTC August 09, 2004
During the past five day period geomagnetic conditions have been quiet Kp-0-2
to unsettled Kp-3, with brief periods at active Kp-4 to minor geomagnetic
storming Kp-5. The unsettled to minor storming conditions have occurred thanks
to a high speed solar streams from small but geoeffective (Earth facing)
Coronal Holes #107 & #108.
During the same period daily solar flux and sunspot numbers fell back to low
levels of 87 and 36. As of Sunday August 08, 2004 the daily solar flux level
stood at 105, 105 and 109 and the daily sunspot number was 77. These numbers
should continue rising as more sunspots appear.
Solar flaring has been in the B and C class range tied to recently emerging
sunspot group, #10656. Actually this is old sunspot group number #10649,
located at S12E45, the group that wreaked havoc on our ionosphere and LF/MF/HF
radio bands in July 2004. As if on que this sunspot group is rapidly growing
again and already has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This
configuration will produce M class solar flares and possibly even huge X class
solar flares in future days. I first predicted this senario back on August 04,
2004.
Solar and space weather conditions should continue rather unsettled Kp-3 to
active Kp-4, with brief periods of minor storming Kp-5 through at least through
August 12, 2004, due geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole #108 and #109.
Also as sunspot group #10656 continues to grow we will have to watch for proton
storms, polar cap absorption, dayside radio blackouts and strong geomagnetic
storming, tied to future large M class and huge X class solar flares.
What can we expect for propagation conditions during the next 5 days? Barring
any major hiccups from sunspot group #10656:
LF- Poor to fair
MF- Fair
HF-
High Latitude- Fair to good
Mid Latitude- Good
Low Latitude- Good
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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