Geomagnetic storm watches are in effect from 9-11 December , due to
coronal mass ejection (CME) effects from a direct CME collision with
the Earth's magnetosphere on 9-11 December. The CME eruption was
associated with a C7 solar flare erupting from Sunspot Region 2790
on 7 December.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/geomagnetic-storm-watches-9-11-december-2020
Arrival of a shock wave associated with the CME is possible late on
9 December, initially resulting in a G1 level minor geomagnetic storm.
As CME effects continue, geomagnetic disturbance is likely to increase,
especially if the magnetic field carried with the CME rotates to a
southward orientation, causing magnetic reconnection with the Earth's
opposite polarity magnetosphere.
The potential for strong storm levels exists and a G3 strong geomagnetic
storm level w atch is in effect for 10 December. CME-related
geomagnetic disturbances are forecast to continue through 11 December,
likely resulting in G2 moderate geomagnetic storm levels - and another
geomagnetic storm watch has been issued accordingly.
While SWPC forecasters are fairly confident in CME arrival at Earth,
timing and geomagnetic storm intensity are less certain. Continue to
monitor the SWPC webpage for the latest conditions and forecast.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings
www.solarham.net/geo_forecast.htm
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction
73
Frank
W3LPL
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