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A weak shockwave from the glancing blow of the coronal mass ejection
from the X28-class flare of 4-XI-2003 was recorded at about
1900Z 6-XI-2003. It only produced minor to major storm conditions
that passed after a few hours.
As I write this update, the geomagnetic activity is slightly active
due to the influence of a small coronoal hole. The IMF
(Interplanetary Magnetic Field) has been somewhat orientated toward
the south (with a Bz reading that is negative), so this has elevated
the geomagnetic activity. This geomagnetic activity will continue
for a few days. It will mostly degrade over-the-pole and very high-
latitude propagation paths, and slightly degrade the lower HF
frequencies.
The proton event that we've been having is pretty much over, though,
so the polar paths are better than they've been for many days, even
with the elevated goemagnetic activity.
Here's an interesting note: on 6-XI-2003, two B-class flares were
recorded. These unusually long flares are indirect echoes caused
by giant flares still occurring from those two huge sunspots, but
from the other side of the sun! This is an indication that we'll
want to watch for the return of these sunspot groups and their
possible continuation of high intensity flaring, when they rotate
back into view in about 10 days.
Propagation this weekend should be fair to good for most paths,
on low HF all the way up to about 21 MHz. Frequencies above 21 MHz
will have weaker propagation on many paths, as the 10.7-cm flux has
decreased again to below 100. Predicted average flux is 90 and 86
for today and tomorrow.
More at http://prop.hfradio.org
73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :
: 122.93W 47.67N - CW / SSB / DIGITAL / DX-Hunting / Propagation :
: A creator of solutions -- http://accessnow.com/ -- Perl Rules! :
: Washington State MARS Emergency Operations Officer - (AAM0EWA) :
: WA State Army MARS Webmaster for http://wa.mars.hfradio.org/ :
: 10x56526, FISTS 7055, FISTS NW 57, A.R. Lighthouse Society 144 :
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