I really enjoyed Ken (N6RO) and Tony (AE0M) recent post with some
stats from their recent WPX SSB effort. I did something similar
last year with the results from NK7U and figured it was time for
me to dust off my calculator and do the same with this year's
results. I can now offer some interesting comparisons to last
year's NK7U score as well as this year's KO6N effort. Both
NK7U efforts were M/S whereas KO6N/98 and AE0M/97 were M/M.
QSO Point and Multiplier Breakdown
==================================
NK7U/98 NK7U/97 KO6N/98
Points/QSO % Q's % Mults | % Q's % Mults | % Q's % Mults
0 28% 32% | 43% 44% | 32% 32%
2 4% 4% | 4% 3% | 5% 4%
3 45% 54% | 32% 39% | 44% 53%
4 3% 2% | 3% 3% | 4% 2%
6 20% 8% | 18% 11% | 15% 8%
The similarity of NK7U and KO6N's 1998 breakdown's is amazing.
The splits of multipliers by bands is almost exactly the same.
This is even with the fact that we did no 10 and 160 operating
this year at NK7U. We also agree you can't live with the zero
pointers and you can't live without them. (See further data
below.)
Another interesting stat is the % of QSO's that were multipliers.
NK7U/98 NK7U/97 KO6N/98
Points/QSO % Q's = Mults | % Q's = Mults | % Q's = Mults
0 46% | 37% | 22%
2 37% | 26% | 16%
3 42% | 45% | 27%
4 19% | 37% | 12%
6 16% | 23% | 12%
KO6N's overall numbers are lower than ours because they had over
twice as many Q's as we did. The percentages on the 4 and 6 point
Q's are low because many of the mults were worked on 15 and 20M
before the bands opened on 40 and 80.
More on Zero Point QSO's
==========================
Of course the key is looking at the relative payback on
the time invested working zero point QSO's hoping for
mults, versus scrapping for positive point ones. This
is where the real strategy can come in and it up to
every operator to decide on. A calculated guess can be
made by looking at the multipliers gained as the 0
point QSO's progressed through the contest. At NK7U
here are the multipliers we gained in each progressive
100 QSO group of zero pointers:
1998 1997
QSO Group # of Multipliers # of Multipliers
1-100 78 73
101-200 45 45
201-300 44 43
301-400 39 30
401-500 25 24
501-600 N/A 18
601-693 N/A 23
Pretty much the same. I think we have a predicatble pattern here.
By the end of the contest we were still getting one new
multiplier for every 4 to 5 zero point QSO. Now if you know the
rates as which you run 0 point Q's versus dig for positive point
ones, you can start creating a real strategy.
It is interesting that the number of zero point Q's was
substantially lower for us in 1998 than 1997. Not sure why.
Conditions to EU were much better for us in 1998 than 1997 so we
probably spent more time scrapping for them than trying to
roundup zero point mults. We also took a couple afternoon breaks
both Sat and Sun this year which is the usual time for zero point
runs.
Relative Serial Numbers Sent and Received
=========================================
The fun of a serial number based contest is that you
can compare your relative performance with those of the
people you work.
Received NK7U/98 NK7U/97 KO6N/98 AE0M/97
QSO #1 2.5% | 2.7% | 6.4% | 24%
QSO # <=10 16.2% | 21.1% | 24.2% | 61%
I am not sure why the relatively big differences here. It could
be that KO6N and AE0M were M/M. That meant they had operators on
relatively slow bands who were pleading for QSO's from casual
operators. At NK7U we had little time to be in this mode so more
of our Q's were with people active in the contest.
Some other fun stats.
NK7U/98 NK7U/97
% of time rcv'd #
bigger than sent # 10% 9%
% of time we sent
a # 10X or larger
than rcv'd # 42% ~50%
% of time we sent
a # 100X or larger
than rcv'd # 8% 12%
On average the # we
sent was this number
of times bigger that
the # we received. 43X 54X
I am not sure what to make of this last one as it is skewed by a
few number of "59/1XXX" reports sent with a a "59/X" report
received. But it is fun just the same.
That's it for now.
Scott Tuthill/K7ZO and one of the NK7U contesting gang.
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