I'd like to encourage everyone to get on - the SECC has done well in the CQP
in years past, and, there are prizes!
Hal
-----Original Message-----
From: secc-bounces at contesting.com [mailto:secc-bounces at contesting.com]On
Behalf Of John Laney
Sent: Friday, October 06, 2006 4:53 PM
To: secc; Paul Newberry N4PN
Subject: [SECC] Propagation predictions for CQP
See the ARRL propagation prediction from Atlanta to California for CQP
this weekend. This is form a scientist who probably never operates a
radio. It is unlikely that 20M will be open as late as 03Z and, if it
is, it won't be the strongest signals of the day. 40M is unlikely to be
usable as early as 22Z as he suggests and certainly won't be usable as
late at 16Z (that's noon here!) unless you have a super station. I have
worked Eastern Washington with 100 watts at 1:30 PM in July from the old
W4AN station in Dahlonega, but not from home. I'd expect little
propagation on 40M to California between 14Z and 2330Z. Don't forget
that this contest includes 160M, so those of you with good 160M stations
should check that band during the hours of darkness here. Good luck and
much fun. 73, John, K4BAI.
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP41
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 6, 2006
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP041
ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
Daily sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher this week. Average
daily sunspot numbers rose nearly 22 points to 34.6. Average daily
solar flux was up nearly six points to 76.7.
September 30 ended the third quarter of 2006, so now is a good time
to review quarterly averages of daily sunspot numbers and solar
flux, to examine the current solar cycle's downward trend.
>From the first quarter of 2004 through the third quarter of 2006,
the average daily sunspot number was 72.9, 71.3, 69.3, 61, 46.1,
55.7, 58, 36, 18.1, 39.7 and 23.5.
The average daily solar flux for the same period was 111.1, 99.5,
111, 104.8, 96.4, 93.1, 93.6, 84.5, 78.5, 82.1 and 77.5.
That still looks like a steady downward slope. The Space Environment
Center forecast still predicts a low point for sunspot numbers
during March and April of next year. This is based on a smoothed
sunspot number, so those daily values are averaged over six months
to produce a smoothed value centered in the middle of the period.
So when we are in the middle of it, because of daily variation, it
may not be immediately apparent that we have reached minimum. But if
it is anything like the last minimum--ten years ago this month--we
should observe at least several weeks of no sunspots at all.
We are nearing the end of sunspot cycle 23, and earlier this year we
read about the predictions of Mausumi Dikpata, who said that cycle
24 may be a big one. She used observations of the Great Conveyor
Belt, a huge circulating current of hot plasma inside the sun, which
takes about 40 years to complete a full rotation. The speed of this
belt seems to correlate well with solar activity 20 about years in
the future. The movement has slowed considerably, leading NASA solar
physicist David Hathaway to predict weak activity for cycle 25,
peaking around the year 2022. You can read about it at,
http://www.physorg.com/news66581392.html.
Eric Hall, K9GY mentioned the California QSO Party this weekend in a
recent email. You can find the at rules on the web at,
http://www.cqp.org/.
Here are some projections using W6ELprop (free at
http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/) to see what propagation to California
from various locations may be like this weekend.
>From Boston, 15-meter propagation may be possible, especially if
sunspot numbers stay steady or increase. The best times would be
1600-2100z. Check 20 meters 1430-0030z, with stronger signals late
in the period. 40 meters looks strongest from 0030-1130z, and 80
meters over about the same period.
>From Atlanta, 10 meter chances look slim, but most likely openings
are around 1600-2300z, and 15 meter chances look very good over the
same period. Check 20 meters 1300-1400z and 1545-0300z, with
strongest signals in the last four hours of that period. 40 meters
looks good 2200-0130z, and excellent 0200-1200z, and still good
around 1230-1600z. 80 meters should be good after dark, but best
0330-1100z.
>From the center of the 48 contiguous United States, check 20 meters
1500-0200z, and 40 meters should be open around the clock, with
strongest signals 0130-1300z, and weakest around 1630-2130z. 80
meters looks best 0230-1230z.
>From Chicago, 10 meters has a small chance of openings in the
1730-2130z time slot. 15 meters looks very good 1630-2230z and
possibly later. 20 meters looks best 1330-1530z, and 2230-0230z. 40
meters may be open all day and night, with the best signals
0130-1200z and weakest 1700-2030z. 80 meters looks best 0330-1130z.
>From Dallas, check 15 meters 1730-2200z, 20 meters 1400-0230z. 40
meters should be good over a 24 hour period, with best chances
0100-1300z and weakest around 1730-2030z. 80 meters looks strongest
0300-1200z.
>From Salt Lake City, 80 meters should be open all day and night.
Best 80-meter signals 0130-1330z and weakest 1700-2200z. 40-meter
best bet is 1430-0300z.
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ .
Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4 were 36, 51, 38,
35, 36, 23 and 23 with a mean of 34.6. 10.7 cm flux was 73, 76.5,
77.7, 78.4, 77.9, 76.6, and 76.7, with a mean of 76.7. Estimated
planetary A indices were 2, 3, 12, 25, 7, 5 and 3 with a mean of
8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 9, 14, 6, 6 and 2,
with a mean of 6.
NNNN
/EX
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