[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was moderate due to an isolated M1/1n flare at 17/1953 UTC from Region 3169 (N19E64, Dko/beta-gamma). This region also produced a few C-class flares during the period as it continues to rotate onto the disk. C-class activity was also observed from Regions 3162 (S13W59, Hax/alpha), 3167 (N21W58, Ca0/beta) and 3170 (S19E70, Cso/beta). Slight decay in the trailing spots of Region 3163 (S20W33, Eki/beta-gamma), the largest region on the disk, was observed. The remaining regions remained little changed.

At 17/2220 UTC, Region 3167 produced a C3.2 flare that produced a CME off the NW limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 17/2224 UTC. Initial analysis and model output suggests no Earth impact, but additional analysis is on going. A second CME was observed off the W limb in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/0648 UTC. The origin of this CME appears to be from old Region 3165 (S22, L=278) and is not Earth-directed. No additional CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares on 18-20 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal-moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 18-20 Dec. There is a slight chance for a solar energetic proton event (S1-Minor) on 18-20 Dec due to flare potential of Region 3163 and old Region 3165.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal with solar wind speed ranging from 265-350 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-9 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: A negative polarity CH HSS may cause minor enhancements on 18-20 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Isolated unsettled periods are possible on 18-19 Dec, with active levels possible on 20 Dec, due to influences from a CH HSS.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation