[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Dec 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Dec 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached very low levels during the period. Region 2792 (S22E20) was inactive and showed signs of decay toward plage by the end of the period. Region 2793 (S15E43, Bxo/beta) remained inactive and not overly complex. A five degree filament lifted from near S36W26 between 15/1925 and 15/1946 UTC. Forecaster analysis determined there was no observable CME with this event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 16-18 Dec, with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on 16-18 Dec while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by available DSCOVR spacecraft data, reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT, the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT and wind speeds varied between about 350-290 km/s with a gradual decrease over the period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in positive sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be at nominal levels on 16 Dec. Slight enhancements are expected on 17 Dec due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS influence before a quick return to nominal conditions 18 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on 16 Dec. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 17 Dec due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS influence. A return to mostly quiet conditions is anticipated for 18 Dec.

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