[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jun 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jun 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 12-14 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate levels for 12-14 Jun due to an enhanced solar environment. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced late this period due to a SSBC, and subsequent CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field values increased to 8 nT, and the Bz component underwent a southward deflection of -5 nT. Density reached a peak of 26.49 particles per cubic cm at approximately 12/0649 UTC. Wind speeds also increased, nearing 370 km/s. The phi angle ventured into a positive orientation around 12/0851 UTC.

Forecast: 12 Jun is expected to see solar wind velocities continue to elevate with the anticipated onset of a CH HSS from a positive polarity, northern crown extension CH. Additionally, there is a chance for solar wind conditions to reflect passage of a slow CME on 12 Jun. Waning CH/CME conditions are forecast for 13 Jun. Ambient conditions are expected on 14 Jun.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to see unsettled to active conditions with the anticipated onset of CH HSS effects from a positive polarity, northern crown extension CH on 12 Jun. There is also a chance for weak impacts from a slow CME on 12 Jun. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast for 13 Jun, and quiet on 14 Jun.

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