[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Mar 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Mar 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2734 (N08W65, Axx/alpha) was stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (12-14 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 2,410 pfu observed at 11/2150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels 12-13 Mar, and normal to high levels 14 Maar due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels. Winds speeds averaged around 340 km/s for a majority of the period, until becoming slightly elevated to around 400 km/s at approximately 0530 UTC, but have since declined. The phi angle was in a negative solar sector. However, a brief excursion into a positive orientation was noted from approxiamately 0553-0733 UTC. During this time, the total field became enhanced to 10 nT, and the Bz component reached values up to -8 nT.

Forecast: Weak disturbances embedded within the IMF are possible 12-13 Mar. A non-recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated late on 14 Mar.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels through the forecast period due to isolated enhancements in the solar wind environoment, followed by a negative polarity CH HSS late on 14 Mar.

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