[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Feb 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Feb 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest solar event of the period was a B9 flare from an unnumbered region around the eastern limb. Region 2505 (N08W65, Dac/beta) produced a B4 flare at 22/1631 UTC. Region 2505 appeared to display signs of slight decay in its intermediate spots. The only other numbered sunspot group on the visible disk, Region 2501 (N04W38, Hsx/alpha), was absent of significant flare activity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (23-25 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 13,209 pfu observed at 22/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (23-25 Feb). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of ambient background conditions. Solar wind speed was steady, ranging between approximately 350 km/s and 380 km/s. IMF field strength (Bt) reached a peak of 8 nT while the Bz component dipped as low as -5 nT. The phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation with a brief fluctuation to positive (away from the Sun) early in the period. Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are expected for day one and the majority of day two (23-24 Feb). Late on day two, phi angle is expected to rotate into a positive orientation with a gradual increase in wind speeds. This is due to the expected arrival of a positive polarity, northern polar extension coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet conditions for the next two days (23-24 Feb). Unsettled conditions are expected late on 24 February due to the onset of a weak, positive polarity CH HSS.

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