[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 07 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only a few low level B-class flares observed. Region 2427 (N16W79, Cso/beta) was mostly inactive and stable, but did manage to produce the largest flare of the period, a B5/Sf flare at 07/0758 UTC. Region 2429 (S17E49, Bxo/beta) remained quiescent during the period.

An approximately fourteen degree long filament, centered near S28W63, was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off the SW limb from approximately 07/0214 - 0813 UTC. Shortly after that, an approximately ten degree long filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off the SE quadrant of the solar disk, centered near S32E28, from 07/0858 to 07/0959 UTC. No LASCO coronagraph imagery was available at the time of this discussion. Further analysis will be accomplished as imagery becomes available to determine if there were any coronal mass ejections associated with these filaments.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares for the forecast period (07-09 Oct).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during the period, reaching a peak flux of 6,928 pfu at 06/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal levels for days one and two (07-08 Oct) following the redistribution of particles due to the passage of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR). Levels are expected to increase to normal to moderate on day three (09 Oct) as coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence continues. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were near background levels for the first half of the period. Solar wind speeds averaged near 400 km/s, total field strength (Bt) ranged between 5 and 10 nT, while Bz varied between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle was in a mostly positive (away from the Sun) orientation, occasionally reaching into a negative (towards the Sun) sector at the beginning of the period.

Shortly after 07/0200 UTC, the magnetic field experienced an enhancement as Bt increased to 14 nT initially, eventually seeing values near 20 nT. Simultaneously, Bz saw a southward deviation near -10 nT and wind speeds began climbing, eventually reaching a peak speed just below 500 km/s. These enhancements are believed to be associated with the onset of the CIR.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the majority of day one (07 Oct) as influence from the positive polarity, equatorial CH HSS continues. CH HSS effects should begin to wane near the end of day one into day two (08 Oct). Early on day two, an enhancement in solar wind parameters is possible due to prolonged southward Bz combined with night time sector effects. Day three (09 Oct) is likely to see a decrease in activity as CH HSS effects continue to wane. However, an isolated period of substorming could cause another short-lived disturbance in the solar wind environment.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels to begin the summary period. Shortly after the turn of the UT day, conditions initially increased to active levels, but eventually reached Major (G2-Moderate) storm conditions as the anticipated CIR began coupling with the Earths magnetosphere.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at minor (G1-Minor) storm levels, with Major (G2-Moderate) storm levels possible for the remainder of day one (07 Oct) into the early hours of day two (08 Oct). Active to minor storm (G1) levels are expected through the end of day two and into the early portion of day three (9 Oct) due to substorming effects. The remaining part of 9 Oct should see quiet to unsettled conditions as CH HSS effects begin to subside.

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