[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2427 (N16W65, Cao/beta) remained the sole numbered sunspot region on the solar disk. This region continued to exhibit signs of decay, losing the vast majority of its trailer spots. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in available satellite imagery during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares for the forecast period (06-08 Oct).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during the period, reaching a high value of 1,899 pfu at 05/1310 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal to high levels on days one and two (06-07 Oct) before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on day three (08 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters returned to normal background conditions. Solar wind speeds began the period near 500 km/s, but began a steady decrease in velocity throughout the period, ending near 390 km/s. Total field strength (Bt) held steady between 3 and 5 nT while Bz ranged between +/- 4 nT. The phi angle remained in a steady positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day one (06 Oct). Late on day two (07 Oct), the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a recurrent, equatorial positive polarity CH HSS is expected to impact the Earths magnetosphere. An increase in solar wind speeds to near 650 km/s, as well as an increase in total field strength to near 20 nT, is expected. Enhanced conditions are expected to persist through most of day two, into the early hours of day three (08 Oct) in response to the high speed stream.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to substorming and prolonged negative Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active conditions on day one (06 Oct). Late on day two (07 Oct), the arrival of a CIR and subsequent CH HSS are expected. An increase to moderate (G2-Major) storm levels are expected by the end of the period, persisting into the early hours of day three (08 Oct). Active to minor storm (G1) levels are expected through the end of the day.

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