[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Oct 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Oct 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2427 (N18W52, Dao/beta) remains the only region on the disk and produced a single B-class flare. The region showed decay in its intermediate and trailer spots. No CMEs were detected by SOHO LASCO C2 imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares for the forecast period (05-07 Oct).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at predominately normal to moderate levels but reached high levels at the end of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal to high levels all three days of the forecast period (05-07 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced throughout the period. Solar wind speeds averaged about 500 km/s. Total field strength (Bt) ranged between 5-10 nT while the Bz component varied between -7 to +6 nT. The phi angle remained in a steady positive (away from the Sun) orientation with a short variation to a negative orientation between approximately 04/2000-2200 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on day one (05 Oct) with a slow return to nominal levels through days two and three (06-07 Oct).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1) levels due to substorming and prolonged negative Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with possible isolated minor storm periods, for the remainder of day one (05 Oct). Predominately quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (06-07 Oct).

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