[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 03 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2376 (N12E22, Eao/beta-gamma) lost some penumbral coverage, but gained more spots and redeveloped magnetic mixing amongst the groups trailer. The regions increased instability made it somewhat active as it produced a pair of C-class and several optical flares. Region 2373 (N16E06, Cso/beta) underwent some dissipation as it lost spots, but despite the decay and its simple bipolar magnetic configuration, the region is located along a contorted section of the solar sector boundary. This may have contributed to its instability, as it produced several C-class and optical flares.

Region 2378 (S17E62, Dso/beta) rotated further onto the visible disc allowing for a better analysis of it structure, but magnetic classification remained difficult due to its proximity to the limb. The region proved somewhat unstable as it produced several C-class and optical flares, to include the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sf at 03/0305 UTC. Newly numbered NOAA region 2379 (S15E51, Bxo/beta) changed little during the period and remained relatively stable. The remaining two regions were little changed and inactive.

An eruptive prominence from just beyond the northeast limb was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 02/1700 UTC and had an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 02/1800 UTC. Analysis of all available imagery, indicates the CME is likely to be well north and east of the Earths orbital plane. A 17 degree long filament over the far SW quadrant of the Sun, centered near S39W50, became active and disappeared beginning about 03/0400 UTC. Analysis of available imagery indicates an eruption was unlikely and most of the material reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (03-05 Jul) primarily due to the flare potential from regions 2376, 2373, and 2378.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels and reached a peak flux of 5446 pfu at 02/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated to start the period, but returned to near background levels by the end of the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one and two (03-04 Jul). The onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) late on day two to early on day three (05 Jul) is expected to prompt a flux decrease to normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background levels by the end of day one (03 Jul) and remain at background levels for the remainder of the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters reflected an ambient solar wind environment. Solar wind velocity continued to decrease from initial values near 360 km/s to end-of-period values averaging near 325 km/s. Total magnetic field values were steady between 2-4 nT and Bz was predominately northward, but did have a few southward deflections. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day one (03 Jul) through most of day two (04 Jul). Late on day two (04 Jul) into day three (05 Jul), the onset of a CIR followed by a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to prompt a solar wind increase, possibly in excess of 600 km/s based on recurrence from the previous rotation.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet this period under a nominal solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 Jul) under an ambient solar wind environment. Quiet to unsettled field activity is expected late on day two (04 Jul) due to the onset of a CIR. The onset of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on day three (05 Jul).

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