[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jul 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jul 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Both Regions 2373 (N16E21, Dso/beta) and 2376 (N13E38, Eai/beta-gamma) produced a few weak C-class flares during the period. Region 2373 showed some trailer spot consolidation while Region 2376 exhibited some trailer spot development. New Regions 2377 (S11W30, Hrx/alpha) and 2378 (S15E70, Cso/beta) were numbered this period. The remaining regions were quiet and stable.

An active prominence along the NE limb erupted between 01/1600-1700 UTC as observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Most material appeared to be reabsorbed and any eruptive material appeared to eject well north and east of the Sun-Earth line.

Surging was noted beyond the SW limb in SDO/AIA 304 imagery around 01/1400 UTC. At 01/1436 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed an asymmetric, partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) off the west limb. Analysis and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests this CME is traveling well off the Sun-Earth line with no Earth impact expected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for days one through three (02 - 04 Jul) primarily due to the higher flare potential of Region 2376.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 5,950 pfu observed at 01/1515 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux saw a slight enhancement above background levels beginning around 01/1700 UTC with a peak of 5 pfu observed at 02/0030 UTC. This rise in proton flux levels was likely due to the surging activity at about 01/1430 UTC beyond the SW limb.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate to high levels over the next three days (02 - 04 Jul). 10 MeV proton flux is expected to trend down to background levels over day one through three (02 - 04 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters displayed ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds began the period averaging about 425 km/s and steadily decreased to end the period near 360 km/s. Total field values ranged between 3-5 nT while the Bz component generally varied between +/-4 nT. Phi orientation was in a positive (away) sector then entire period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly nominal on days one through three (02 - 04 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one through three (02 - 04 Jul). Isolated periods of unsettled activity are possible in response to a small positive polarity coronal hole late on day one (02 Jul).

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