[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 21 1235 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 21 1235 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2371 (N13E08, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the majority of the flare activity including two M-Class flares. Region 2367 (S20W55, Eki/beta-gamma) was stable in growth and active with the largest event of the period, a M3/2b flare at 21/0944 UTC.

A full-halo CME associated with an M2/1N flare was first observed on LASCO coronagraph imagery at 21/0236 UTC. Further analysis will be required to determine potential impact at Earth.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with M-class flare activity likely for days one-three (21-23 Jun) due to the flare potential from Regions 2371 and 2367.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 1,340 pfu at 20/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is still slightly enhanced from the proton event on 18 June. The max flux for the period was 2 pfu at 21/1010 UTC.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels for days one-three (21-23 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain enhanced on days one through three (21-23 Jun) with a chance for an increase to S1-Minor solar radiation storm levels due to flare potential as well as a possible enhancement with the arrival of the 18 and 19 Jun CMEs.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at near ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds generally ranged between 300 km/s to near 280 km/s. Total magnetic field strength averaged between 2-6 nT. The Bz component was variable and reached a maximum southward deviation of -1 nT. The phi angle was predominantly positive (away from the Sun).

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at near ambient conditions on day one (21 Jun). A glancing blow from a CME that erupted on 18 Jun is expected to cause disruptions in the solar wind environment early on day two (22 Jun) followed by another disturbance on day three (23 Jun) with the arrival of the CME observed on 19 Jun.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at mostly quiet levels on day one (21 Jun) with isolated unsettled periods possible late in the day. G1-Minor storm conditions are likely on days two and three (22-23 Jun) due to glancing blows from the 18 and 19 Jun CMEs respectively.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation