[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 Jun 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 Jun 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. The largest flare of the period was a long duration M1 flare from the vicinity of Region 2365 (S13, L=082), which recently rotated off the SW limb. Available LASCO C2 imagery indicated an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) around 18/0125 UTC. Analysis of the CMEs signature suggested an Earth-directed component was unlikely.

Region 2371 (N12E46, Ekc/beta-gamma), the largest region on the disk, exhibited growth in the intermediate spots. Low level C-class flare activity was associated with this region in the latter half of the period. Region 2367 (S20W14, Ekc/beta-gamma) remained mostly stable with slight decay noted around the trailer and intermediate spots.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (18-20 Jun).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux peaked at high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux trended up in response to the long duration M1 flare from the SW limb mentioned above. Current 10 MeV proton flux is near S1 levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for day one and two (18-19 Jun). Electron flux is forecast to decrease to moderate levels for day three (20 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above S1 levels on day one (18 Jun) with a chance to persist at S1 levels into day two (19 Jun) before subsiding towards background levels by day three (20 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated diminishing influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased gradually over the period from just under 500 km/s to just over 400 km/s. IMF total field strength was mostly between 5 nT and 7 nT. Except for a short 2 hour duration early in the period, Bz had no significant sustained southward component. The phi angle remained mostly in a positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to settle into nominal conditions on day one (18 Jun). Solar wind speeds are forecast to remain around 400 km/s with IMF total field steady around 5 nT. No other notable activity in ACE solar wind data is expected, with the exception of a possible recurrent solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) from positive phi to a negative orientation on day three (20 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions due to prolonged periods of sustained southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for days one through three (18-20 Jun) with potential for isolated unsettled conditions on day three, associated with a possible recurrent SSBC.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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