[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2015 May 07 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2015 May 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity returned to low levels following yesterdays M-flare. The largest flare of the period was a C3 at 06/2023 UTC from Region 2339 (N13E53, Fkc/beta-gamma). This region continued to grow and maintain its magnetic complexity.

Disappearing filaments were noted to the south and west of Region 2335 (S15W12, Ekc/beta-Gamma) throughout the period. No indication of Earth directed CMEs associated with most of these filaments have been observed on LASCO imagery. A 17 degree filament that lifted off from 06/1449-1557 UTC, centered near S07W18, and was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 06/1648 UTC. It was parametrized using only the available C2 imagery and preliminary model output suggests a glancing blow on 09 May. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this result and analysis continues. Another CME emerged from the southeast limb at 06/1912 UTC in C2 imagery, but could not be correlated with a near-side eruption.

Although there was some decay in the intermediate spots of Region 2335, it was the only other region to contribute to the flare activity throughout the period. All other regions remain stable or in decay.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight, yet increasing chance for an X-class (R3-Strong) flare , over the next three days (07-09 May) as more active regions are expected to rotate around the east limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, suppressed by recent geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (07-09 May) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions at the ACE spacecraft reflected CME passage. Bt remained elevated, approaching 17 nT around 06/1800 UTC. Bz was negative from 06/1200-1630 UTC and positive afterwards. Phi was negative but gradually rotated into a positive orientation through the course of the period. Wind speed was generally in the mid to lower 400 km/s range, declining through the period. Forecast: Disturbed solar wind conditions are expected to persist at the ACE spacecraft through 07 May as the CME passage continues. A return to quiescent levels is expected on 08 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled, and ranged from quiet to minor storm (G1 Minor) levels in response to a CME passage.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist through 07 May in response to the CME passage. Mostly quiet conditions return on 08 May.

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