Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare occurred
in Region 710 (S07E33) at 09/0012Z. Limited LASCO imagery revealed
what is likely a full halo CME associated with yesterday's long
duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption at 08/1959Z. No other
activity of note occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a low C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 09/0900 - 1200Z. A sustained period of southward Bz
produced the active conditions. Solar wind speed declined to near
400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storming. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 10 December. Transient flow associated
with the long duration C2 flare and CME on 09 December is expected
to arrive on 11 December. Expect active to minor storm levels with
isolated major storm periods on 11 and 12 December. A return to
quiet to occasional active levels are expected by the end of the
three-day period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 087
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 008/008-020/020-030/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/40
Minor storm 05/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/45/50
Minor storm 10/25/30
Major-severe storm 01/15/15
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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