To: | "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>,"a HCDX Prop Channel" <propagation@hard-core-dx.com> |
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Subject: | [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity |
From: | "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com> |
Date: | Sat, 25 Dec 2004 10:46:49 -0500 |
List-post: | <mailto:propagation@contesting.com> |
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1, long duration x-ray flare occurred at 0356UTC from a spotless area in the southeast quadrant. Both spotted regions, 713 (S08W21) and 714 (S03W30), were quiet and stable. A lengthy filament disappeared from the northwest quadrant early in the day. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to mildly active. A recurrent high-speed solar wind stream is due in the next 24-36 hours. III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Dec 097 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 104 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 010/010-015/015-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor storm 10/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/40/40 Minor storm 10/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 73, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL, USA Grid Square EL87WX Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W kn4lf@arrl.net Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org HCDX Propagation Channel: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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