To: | "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>,"a HCDX Prop Channel" <propagation@hard-core-dx.com> |
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Subject: | [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity |
From: | "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com> |
Date: | Tue, 28 Dec 2004 10:09:34 -0500 |
List-post: | <mailto:propagation@contesting.com> |
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Several small B-class flares were produced by Region 713 (S09W65) and a region on the northeast limb. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for isolated C-class activity from Region 713. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Dec 097 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 104 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 006/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 73, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL, USA Grid Square EL87WX Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W kn4lf@arrl.net Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org HCDX Propagation Channel: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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