:Issued: 2004 Nov 07 1238 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41107
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Nov 2004, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 Nov 2004 until 09 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=
50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 032
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 058
COMMENT: NOAA AR 0696 (Catania sunspot group 61) is still growing and maintains
its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Therefore, an X-flare is possible,
perhaps accompanied by a proton event. Two interplanetary shocks were detected
by ACE and SOHO/CELIAS today: at 02:22 UT and 10:22 UT (CELIAS times). Most
probably they are produced by two halo CMEs erupted from the NOAA AR 0696 on
November 4 (09:54 UT and 23:30 UT respectively). An ICME (possibly with a
complicated structure due to the interaction of two CMEs) with southward
interplanetary magnetic field is expected to follow as the neutral line in the
NOAA AR 0696 is stretched in the East-West direction. A major magnetic storm is
probable. The solar wind speed is, however, low (only around 430 km/s after the
arrival of the second shock), so it is unlikely that the Kp index will be higher
than 6. Late on November 8 - early on November 9 we expect the arrival of the
interplanetary disturbance associated with the hal! o CME observed by LASCO
starting from 01:31 UT on November 6. A major geomagnetic storm is possible as
this CME also erupted from the NOAA AR 0696.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 6 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 104
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 129
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 004
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 002
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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