To: | "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>,"a HCDX Prop Channel" <propagation@hard-core-dx.com> |
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Subject: | [Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report |
From: | "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com> |
Date: | Thu, 30 Dec 2004 10:39:06 -0500 |
List-post: | <mailto:propagation@contesting.com> |
:Issued: 2004 Dec 30 1239 UTC :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 41230 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Dec 2004, 1226UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 Dec 2004 until 01 Jan 2005) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 018 PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jan 2005 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 017 COMMENT: On Dec 29, 16:27UT an M2.3 flare occurred coming from Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA 0715) at the east. An EIT-wave is clearly visible, this is a sign of a possible accompanying CME. CACTus detected indeed a CME with an angular width of 112 degrees east-ward ejected. No geomagnetic disturbance caused by this event is expected. A second M-flare later that evening had no sign of an accompanying CME. At the moment of issue of this bulletin, another M-flare occurred, probably coming from group 98 (NOAA 0715). ACE detected a rather intense increase in solar wind speed: from 400 up to 550 km/s. The total interplanetary has decreased again since the solar wind speed increase. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions. SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Dec 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 099 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 023 AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 018 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 29 1557 1627 1638 N04E62 M2.3 510 III/2,II/1 98 0715 29 1910 1920 1925 S12W90 M1.4 90 0713 73, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL, USA Grid Square EL87WX Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W kn4lf@arrl.net Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org HCDX Propagation Channel: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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