:Issued: 2004 Dec 05 1250 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41205
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Dec 2004, 1245UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Dec 2004 until 07 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 087 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 083 / AP: 005
COMMENT: The shock recorded by ACE today Dec.5 at 07:00UT did not produce much
geoeffect up to now. Indeed, so far, the Bz component of the IMF remained always
positive (now +22nT). Therefore, for the next few hours, we expect mostly
unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. However, Bz may turn negative, then
immediately leading to a minor or moderate geomagnetic storm later today, given
the elevated speed (430km/s), density and field strength. The solar activity
itself remains very low and all active regions are now declining. Only isolated
C flares are possible.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Dec 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 097
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 003
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 001
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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