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[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

To: "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>,"a HCDX Prop Channel" <propagation@hard-core-dx.com>
Subject: [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 11:18:47 -0400
List-post: <mailto:propagation@contesting.com>
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 656 (S14W77)
produced several major flares over the period.  The largest flare
was an M2.4 flare at 17/1937 UTC.  Region 656 decayed slightly as it
approached the west limb.  A large filament erupted in the southeast
quadrant of the solar disk at 0500 UTC, observed on SOHO/EIT
imagery.  Shortly thereafter a CME was observed emerging from the
southeast limb at 0630 UTC on LASCO imagery.  The CME was not
directed towards Earth.  No new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 656 may still produce major flare activity
before it crosses the west limb in the next day.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days.  Isolated active
conditions are possible on day three (20 Aug) from the minor effects
of a small coronal hole that will reach geoeffective position.

III.  Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    75/50/25
Class X    20/10/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 135
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  125/115/115
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  008/008-005/008-008/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
kn4lf@arrl.net

KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com


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