Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Nov 14 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class activity
was observed in Regions 699 (S13E03) and 700 (N04W40). Region 700
continues to slowly grow in sunspot number and area. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated low C-class flares are expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. Elevated solar wind speed (450 - 550 km/s) and a southward
period of IMF Bz between 13/2300 - 14/0300Z generated the active
periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on
07/1910Z, officially ended on 13/1600Z. The peak flux was 495 pfu on
08/0115Z with a secondary peak of 424 pfu on 10/1655Z. This proton
event followed X2 flares on 07 and 10 November. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 100
Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 14 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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