To: | "a Propagation Reflector" <propagation@contesting.com>,"a HCDX Prop Channel" <propagation@hard-core-dx.com> |
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Subject: | [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity |
From: | "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com> |
Date: | Mon, 20 Dec 2004 12:38:23 -0500 |
List-post: | <mailto:propagation@contesting.com> |
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 713 (S10E46) produced a single C1 flare at 19/0414Z. A faint CME off the southeast limb was likely associated with this flare, but is not expected to be geoeffective. Region 712 (S11E24), the only other spot group on the visible disk, was quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 713. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed was in gradual decline and finished the period near 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 22 December. III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Dec 094 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 104 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-005/005-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/30 Minor storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 73, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL, USA Grid Square EL87WX Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W kn4lf@arrl.net Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org HCDX Propagation Channel: http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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