:Issued: 2004 Sep 21 1159 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40921
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Sep 2004, 1126UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Sep 2004 until 23 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 085 / AP: 012
COMMENT: A C7.6 flare erupted this morning (peak 08h36 UT) from NOAA AR 672. In
contrast to the previous flare (M1.9 flare on 19 Sept), no enhancement of the
proton flux levels was recorded. Meanwhile, LASCO observations still do not give
a clear view on whether this previous flare had a significant, associated CME.
Only a small chance for a active geomagnetic conditions is thus foreseen for the
coming 24 hours.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Sep 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 037
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 101
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 013
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data:
http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Radiowave Propagation eGroup:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
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