My QTH in Plant City, FL 15 miles east of Tampa Bay is ground zero for
Hurricane Charley for tomorrow. So if I do not
post anything to the list tomorrow it will be due to loss of my broadband
connection and/or loss of power.
73,
Thomas Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Moderator
:Issued: 2004 Aug 12 1311 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40812
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Aug 2004, 1229UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Aug 2004 until 14 Aug 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Aug 2004 10CM FLUX: 147 / AP: 022
COMMENT: Active region Catania#90 (NOAA656) is still growing but at a smaller
rate. It produced a first M flare superimposed on a high X-ray background (C
level), and it has the potential to produce other M flares as well as a possible
X flare.
The solar wind is now steady at about 500km/s and with mostly positive Bz,
leading to quiet geomagnetic conditions. These quiet conditions are expected to
last for the next few hours. However, a solar disturbance may reach the Earth on
Aug. 13 or Aug. 14. Indeed, LASCO and EIT images suggest that a faint and slow
(500km/s) semi-halo CME originated from active region#90 on Aug. 10 at about
15:00UT (filemant activation NW of #90 at 14:36UT, CME visible in LASCO C2 at
16:05). As this disturbance seems to be Earth-directed, it may trigger active or
minor storm geomagnetic conditions.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Aug 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 083
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 131
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 020
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 014
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
12 0438 0505 0520 S15W00 M1.2 90 0656
END
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 31 44N 82 09 51 98W
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer # HIL-249
SWFWMD Rainfall Network Observer #574 Thackery
CWOP Weather Station #CW2111
PODXS 070 PSK31 Club Member #349
KN4LF Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com
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