:Issued: 2004 Oct 31 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41031
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 31 Oct 2004, 1223UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 31 Oct 2004 until 02 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 032
COMMENT: After the X1.2 flare of Oct. 30, active region 52 (NOAA691) produced
another 3 M flares, as well as a semi-halo CME detected by CACTus in LASCO C2
images at 16:54UT and associated with the M5.9 flare of 16:18UT. More M flares,
and maybe an isolated X flare are still possible in that region, although its
activity level is expected to decay slightly. As new magnetic flux elements have
emerged between the two main spots of active region #57 (NOAA693), enhanced
activity,with a possible M flare, can also be expected from that region, which
was relatively quiet until now.
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain unsettled today, with temporary
active periods, but the coronal hole influence is expected to decay at the end
of the UT day and tomorrow, Nov. 1. Then, the arrival of a glancing CME from the
M5 flare of Oct.30 may produce active conditions or a minor storm on Nov. 2. A
new trans-equatorial coronal hole, now located near the solar central meridian,
is then expected to create unsettled geomagnetic conditions, starting on Nov.3.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Oct 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 155
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 136
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 031
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 021
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
30 1618 1633 1637 N15W20 M5.9 SN 300 V/2,II/1 52 0691
semi-halo CME
31 0513 0532 0542 N12W34 M2.4 52 0691
31 0205 0226 0240 N12W33 M1.2 52 0691
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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