:Issued: 2004 Sep 22 1217 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40922
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Sep 2004, 1153UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Sep 2004 until 24 Sep 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2004 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 010
COMMENT: An 'all quiet' status that was forecasted for today was unfortunately
interrupted by NOAA AR 673 which unexpectdly produced a C-flare. Also, a small
perturbation in the solar wind was observed by ACE (wind speed jumped from 440
to 500 km/s around 06h00 UT). Given a mainly positive Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field, this is probably not going to lead to any
geomagnetic consequences. The solar wind perturbation is possible related to a
CME associated with the M1.9 flare on Sept 19.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Sep 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 067
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 095
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 010
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL CWOP Weather Station #CW2111 Live Data:
http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Radiowave Propagation eGroup:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
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